The Independents in New Hampshire; thoughts before the primary, 2008

The nation’s first presidential primary will be held all day tomorrow for both the Democratic and Republican parties in the state of New Hampshire. For the first time in modern political history, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary are extremely close together, with only five days between them. Now that these five days are complete, a record turn out is expected in the nation’s first presidential primary tomorrow. As expected, five days is little time in politics, and can help some candidates and hurt others more dramatically.

THE DEMOCRATS
Riding the momentum after winning the Iowa caucuses this past Thursday, Sen. Barack Obama is seeing record crowds turn out for his events in New Hampshire in the past five days. It is interesting to note that win Sen. Obama announced his candidacy in early 2007, he visited the state with record turn out in crowds but never seemed to gain much traction in the polls. Ever since Sen. Clinton’s drop in national polls in the past two months, Sen. Obama closed the lead in New Hampshire with Clinton. As expected, because of his nine point lead in Iowa over Clinton (she came in third place, behind Sen. Edwards), Sen. Obama received media attention that in effect labeled him as the decisive and surprise winner of Iowa going into New Hampshire. By the weekend, the momentum from his victory in Iowa was largely felt around the state. It is important to note however that 40-45% of New Hampshirites are “undeclared”, or independent as they are not affiliated with any party. These independent voters are a HUGE segment of the voting block and decide elections for the state. In 2006, one could glimpse at the mid-term congressional election results to see that those independents voted heavily Democrat, as the trend was around the country. This time around, independents are flocking to the Democratic Party as they did before and riding on his “wave” of momentum, Sen. Obama is the candidate of an overwhelming majority of the independents in the state. In Iowa, Sen. Obama had an unprecedented level of independents caucus for him. In New Hampshire, we could see the number of independents significantly increase and therefore give a huge win to Obama in the first presidential primary in the country. My thoughts have always been once Obama won Iowa, which he did decisively, he would win New Hampshire and do not be surprised if those his margin over Sen. Clinton and Sen. Edwards are even higher than they were in Iowa. This is simply because of the most important voting block in New Hampshire, the independents which would give him a huge boost. It will be interesting to watch if Sen. Clinton places second, which is expected and where her campaign will go from New Hampshire. Once he receives two solid early state victories, it will be very difficult for the Clinton campaign to stop Obama’s momentum, something he received at the right time going into Iowa and now escalating into New Hampshire, which would only escalate further with a win tomorrow night. Democrats and independents are flocking to Obama’s change message over the experience and “ready to lead” message of Sen. Clinton, something that was widely seen around Iowa on Thursday.

THE REPUBLICANS
Though on the Democratic side it seems there will be a clear winner, on the Republican side it is between two candidates, Sen. John McCain and Gov. Mitt Romney. It is interesting to watch the John McCain surge in New Hampshire in the past several weeks as his campaign seemed to die during the summer. This is politics after all, and anything can change. When Sen. McCain ran in 2000, he lost in Iowa to then Gov. Bush and won in New Hampshire by a huge margin because of those independents voted overwhelmingly for McCain. This time around, independents are going heavily Democratic, and their preferred candidate of choice is Sen. Obama. McCain is not really liked by the base of the Republican Party and this is where Gov. Romney is drawing his strength. I see the race on the Republican side as either one of the winning, though I will give Sen. McCain the edge. If Sen. McCain were to lose New Hampshire to Romney, I think it would be very difficult for his campaign to come back, being that his campaign is in debt and the mere fact that many Republicans do not like the “straight talker”. If Gov. Romney were to lose to McCain in New Hampshire, I think many of Romney’s supporters would question where his track to the nomination would be and where he would go with another second place finish. I do not accept the fact that if he does not win New Hampshire, his campaign is finished, as I believe Romney will hold on at least until Super Tuesday on February 5. Since a huge block of the independents in New Hampshire will be flocking to Obama, I think that hurts McCain, and in turn helps Romney. However, I am not sure if that will be enough for Romney who has obviously been having problems. Though I will not give a prediction on the Republican side, watch the margin of victory for McCain over Romney or Romney over McCain. New Hampshire is going to decide which candidate goes up against Huckabee in South Carolina, who is the favorite there.