Thoughts before the Iowa caucus, 2008

Tomorrow night we will know the results of the Iowa caucus for both the Democrats and the Republicans. For over a year now, I have been closely following the race for 2008 of both parties as it is the first time since the year 1928 that there is not an incumbent in either of the primaries. This historical footnote makes tomorrow’s event in Iowa augments the importance than one would normally associate with it. In a presidential election that will be the most important in my lifetime thus far, and probably in a historical sense the most important general election since 1968 between Nixon and Humphrey, as a historical realignment of the country, we are in for incredible race that officially begins tomorrow with the Iowa caucus. Of course, Iowans do not decide who the parties respective nominee are, but decide where the race will go. That is what is so incredibly essential about tomorrow’s event as it will re-shape the race going into the country’s first primary in New Hampshire, next Tuesday. With this year’s compressed primary calendar, Iowa’s role as deciding where the race goes is even more important in my opinion. Some discount this logic, as Giuliani’s campaign, which is the antithesis of modern presidential primary history. Most, however, have staked the campaigns on Iowa on both the Republican and the Democratic sides, as it will garner an extraordinary amount momentum and media attention winning the first contest of the 2008 presidential race.

The REPUBLICANS:
The Republican race has been very interesting in following because it is clear that Republican voters are not happy with their choices for their nominee. To be honest, it seemed rather clear to me that Gov. Romney was going to easily win both Iowa and New Hampshire, but in the past month, an Arkansas governor who was in the second-tier in this race changed everything. Gov. Mike Huckabee’s rise was a huge threat to Romney as he was staking his campaign on early state wins, which would propel him to the nomination. In Iowa, the race has come down to these two men. If Hucakbee loses the caucus to Romney tomorrow, I think it will be very difficult for him to make a “come back” as he will most definitely not win New Hampshire, only five days after Iowa. Romney, again, has staked his campaign in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire and therefore losing Iowa would be bad news for him, though I believe he can still recover because my thoughts at this moment lead me to believe that if Hucakbee does win Iowa, it will be incredibly close which is not what recent polls suggest. The reason I have deducted this is because of Gov. Romney’s incredible ground organization that he has in Iowa. For little over a year, Romney has been courting Iowa voters and this fact alone can place Romney stronger than polls suggest. If Romney does win Iowa, it will simply because of his large ground operation around the state and his supporters staying loyal to him. The feeling that I am getting is that Huckabee supporters are very much attracted to him but I am not sure will get out of their way like Romney supporters to go out and caucus. For both the Republicans and Democrats, turnout is key and when a campaign has a huge ground organization in the state, they have the advantage. That isn’t to say Huckabee will not win tomorrow’s caucus, but do not be surprised if Romney pulls it off. If Huckabee does pull off a win, Romney is in deep trouble as it will be a huge victory for Huckabee who two months ago was struggling with fundraising and was a second-tier candidate expected to drop out after Iowa. The great thing about politics is that it is constantly flucatiting and the best example in this 2008 presidential campaign is the rise of Huckabee on the Republican side as a major threat to Romney who seemed almost untouchable in Iowa and New Hampshire. All of that has changed and expect a tight race on the Republican side. One thing to watch out for is to see how well Sen. John McCain does in Iowa as many as late as fall had said his campaign was dead. For some reason, McCain has picked up momentum and it will be interesting to see how many caucus for him and if he gets third place with a strong finish, it will certainly receive media attention.

The DEMOCRATS:
Regardless of what you hear about the Iowa race being between Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama, it really is a three-way race with Sen. Edwards. It is incredibly difficult to poll for the Iowa caucus, though usually the Des Moines Register, Iowa’s flagship newspaper seems to be the most accurate, looking back at past caucuses and their results this week found Sen. Obama leading (32%) over Sen. Clinton (25%) and Sen. Edwards (24%). These poll results are interesting because they included a large sample of independents and those who have never caucused before. Obama is counting on these individuals to caucus for him and if we see record numbers of independents caucusing, then Obama will do very well tomorrow night. Sen. Clinton is also relying on first time caucus goers as the brink of her support, though it seems she has reached the cap on her support in Iowa. Though the race is extremely close, if Obama receives those independents he desperately needs, we can see a push that will result in a win of tomorrow’s caucus. This of course is what Sen. Clinton’s campaign is most worried about (which is a real possibility), even more so than her finishing third tomorrow night as the media spotlight and momentum will propel Obama towards the nomination. Sen. Edwards is hoping that these independents and first time caucus goers stay home (which historically, they often have) because the bulk of his support comes from those who have indeed caucused before and are definitely pledging to him. As I mentioned in the introduction, because of the historical importance of this election and the media presence surrounding this election, do not be surprised if a large number of first time caucus goers and independents will vote in the Democratic caucus in Iowa tomorrow night, as he continues to hold the momentum he has received since November. The independents and first time caucus goers who are undecided will help Sen. Obama immensely and though I believe the results will be close, it could give him a win which overnight would give him attention around the world that would be unprecedented. Remember, many Iowans are undecided before caucusing and because of Obama’s momentum, do not be surprised if a majority of them caucus for him.

It is a fascinating race to watch on both sides and tomorrow is the official start for the 2008 presidential campaign. For the next eleven months after tomorrow, the country will be focused on the campaign to the White House which will ultimately lead to the forty-fourth President of the United States.